Global inflation is starting to cool after aggressive campaigns by central banks to bring high prices under control, and the economic outlook is brightening after a turbulent period, but clouds loom over the recovery, according to a forecast released on Thursday.

The rebound is unfolding at an uneven speed around the world, and geopolitical tensions could pose a major risk to growth and inflation — especially if the conflict in the Middle East and attacks in the Red Sea, a critical shipping zone for trade, were to widen, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a think tank in Paris, said in its latest economic survey.

“The global economy has proved resilient, inflation has declined within sight of central bank targets and risks to the outlook are becoming more balanced,” the organization’s secretary-general, Mathias Cormann, said during a news conference Thursday in Paris. “But uncertainty remains.”

Inflation among the 38 O.E.C.D. member countries is expected to fall to 4.8 percent this year and 3.5 percent in 2025, after hitting 9.4 percent in 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine helped set off an energy crisis. Inflation in the United States and in the euro area is expected to fall this year and next toward a 2 percent target that policymakers say is essential for maintaining the stability of prices.

“We’ve been through an inflation shock of a generation,” the organization’s chief economist, Clare Lombardelli, said during the briefing. The biggest price increases have been for essential items like food and energy, she said, adding, “Those on the lowest incomes have been squeezed.”

High interest rates have helped bring prices down, but there is still a risk that inflation may stay higher for longer than expected, Ms. Lombardelli said.


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