Mr. Valadao and Mr. Duarte declined interview requests, but Republican pollsters, strategists and consultants in California have said that demographic changes and new efforts to reach voters of color have shifted the balance of power in their favor. They point to Mr. Valadao’s close victory in 2020, as well as wins by minority candidates like Representatives Young Kim and Michelle Steel in that same year. Others say that the presidential race is just as likely to inflate turnout among Republicans.

“It’ll be close, but Valadao will win,” said Cathy Abernathy, a Republican campaign consultant in Kern County. “And he’ll win most likely because Trump’s on the ballot.”

The Republican voter base is also growing in the Central Valley districts represented by Mr. Valadao and Mr. Duarte, according to registration records by the California secretary of state’s office, a net gain of several thousand voters in both districts from September 2022 to February this year — exceeding the narrow margin of victory in those seats in the 2022 races.

“It’s a little bit of contrast to, I think, the typical narrative that people of color are more progressive-minded,” said Rachel Hernandez, a member of the City Council in Riverbank who is running for mayor. Instead, she added, “what we’re seeing in the Central Valley is that the Latino community is electing more conservative candidates.”

Ms. Hernandez added that, for now, that is not an irreversible trend, but a warning sign for Democrats to pay attention to the nuances of the Latino electorate. She encouraged many of the same tactics that Battleground California says it plans to use: molding a message for the needs of a specific community, and working with staff members and volunteers who represent the community.

“My volunteers, for example, up until just this weekend actually, were all young women,” Ms. Hernandez said. “Young Latina women, college-aged, who approached me because they were saying ‘Wow, this is like our campaign.’”


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